‘This Is It’ concerts – $315m the Big Money

So were AEG the ‘good guys’ and helping Michael get out of the financial difficulties imposed on him by corporate bullies, or were they in it for themselves?

Let’s look at the AEG contract itself and see. As a layperson I do not understand all the terms and conditions in the contract, and for that I may have to defer to Leonard Rowe’s explanation in his book. But what I do understand is that the contract was for a maximum of 31 concerts between July 26 and September 30 2009, and the first leg had to be a minimum of 18 shows. A greater number of shows could be agreed, but the initial contract was as above, UNLESS AEG could prove that more shows were needed in order to recoup the advances it paid to Michael.

Leonard Rowe says that normally, production costs are taken from the gross revenue before the balance is split between the artist and promoter.

So for example if the gross revenue was $1 million and the production costs $300,000, the remaining $700,000 would normally be split between the artist and promoter.

In the AEG contract the gross revenue was split 90/10 in Michael’s favour BUT Michael PAID ALL The PRODUCTION COSTS from his 90%. So, using the same figures as above, Michael would get $900,000 minus the $300,000 production costs leaving him $600,000 and AEG would get the other $100,000. This looks OK at first glance, but then Michael also had to pay back other advances as well. So if the productions costs plus advances spiralled upwards, Michael could end up with $0 or even worse, owing AEG money, and AEG would STILL GET their $100,000.

It appears that the AEG contract did not put AEG in any financial risk. All the financial risk seems to be shouldered by Michael, the artist, without whom there would be no revenue in the first place.

Let’s look at the figures, to see if Michael was going to make any money from the concerts:

COSTS for 1 year

Rent of 100 Carolwood Drive for 1 year estimated at $1.2million

Rent of Foxbury Manor in Kent for 1 year – estimated at $1million

Production costs up to $7,500,000

Cancellation insurance premium for 1 year – estimated at $1.3m

Salary for Tohme Tohme at $100,000 per month - $1.2m

Salary for Conrad Murray at $150,000 per month - $1.8m

Producers Fee (5% of Artists Net Tour Income) – estimated at $3,825,000

COST TOTAL approximately $23 million in 1 year

MICHAEL’S INCOME for 50 shows

90% of the revenue for each 5 shows he completes (out of which the costs above are paid) – estimated at $85,000,000

MICHAEL’S INCOME (estimating $113 for each ticket sold) approximately $76.5m in 1 year.

Therefore, subtracting costs,

MICHAEL’S NET INCOME would be an estimated $53.5m in 1 year.

AEG would be making $8.5m.

This is a conservative estimate, but I think it shows that the AEG contract was going to make Michael a very large amount of money. The production costs would be unlikely to ever rise to $53m. Remember, this is just for the 50 shows.

If he had gone on to do a World Tour, the profits would have been even greater:

MICHAEL’S INCOME for 3 year World Tour

90% of the revenue for each 5 shows he completes (out of which the costs above are paid) – estimated at $255,000,000

MICHAEL’S  INCOME approximately $229.5m in 3 years

Therefore, subtracting costs as above for 3 years,

MICHAEL’S NET INCOME would be an estimated $180m in 3 years.

These figures do not include profits from concert merchandise, which were estimated to be $150m. If the 90/10 split also applied to merchandise, that is another $135m for Michael,

MICHAEL’S GRAND TOTAL $315m